Six Nations Predictor – Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

With the six nations predictor coming to an end for this year, you will, I hope, have realised that at the beginning I only used basic statistical reckoning to calculate what I suggested would be the final outcome. With the weeks, and games, ticking over I have been pleased, or should I say relieved, to see the predicted final outcome to steadily increase towards the actual band of numbers laid down as the favourites.

However, as stated in the title of the post above, we have to be careful of statistics. Looking at this and the previous 5 year’s results, a few facts can be seen. This year we have had the largest week four running total, however we started with the second lowest week one total. If we get a repeat of last year’s week five results we’re going to march straight through the band of favourites and end up in the 700’s. However last year 3 teams were going all out for big wins in the last week and one team put up a stout defence, by playing attacking rugby themselves, unlike others who just rolled over.

So, what do we reckon this year, Wales v Italy, a big score with a depleted Italian squad, say 70 points. Ireland v Scotland, nothing to play for so a boring 35 points at best. France v England, the total opposite of last year with a tight, England just want to win and France just don’t want to lose, game of 25 points. That makes my prediction to be 130 for the final week and a final total of 630. Trouble is that would make Griffalo the winner, and we can’t have that, can we?

  2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  Running Total Running Total Running Total Running Total Running Total Running Total
Week 1 124 105 149 122 89 100
Week 2 273 213 233 211 231 218
Week 3 378 336 324 308 333 334
Week 4 491 455 425 444 439 500
Week 5 589 538 534 603 660 ????

Final thought, why didn’t I do a predictor for the RWC as well, oh well?

Final, final thought, why, if they do it for the RWC and the Southern Hemisphere Championship, don’t we have the bonus point system in the Six Nations? Answers please on a crisp £5 with your predictor number.  Still plenty to buy.

 

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About mparkinson

Before I started on my quest of world domination I was a part time dress maker, specialising in the larger woman.

To succed in my aim of world domination my first plan is to cause social unrest and panic through subliminal messages in my match reports, so reader beware.

During my long journey of life I have caused havoc in many lands, Geordie land, Cockney land and now Manc land. And this is without mentioning what I got up to in foreign rugby tours to USA, Canada, Holland, Hungary, Ireland & Wales.